Week 6 Report Card

We grade our own predictions every week. Week 6: three of our five Start/Sit starts paid off, and 88% of players finished inside our range, the most this season. Here are the biggest misses and surprises.

Every week we grade our own predictions in public, good weeks and bad. This is the third week graded on numbers we posted before kickoff, and it covers every Week 6 game, Monday night's Commanders-49ers game included.

All numbers below use half-PPR scoring and cover the players most people actually start: the top 24 quarterbacks, 36 running backs, 48 receivers and 18 tight ends by our projection.

The Short Version

Start/sit calls: 61% right. Take any two players at the same position. When the model ranked one above the other, he scored more 61% of the time. A coin flip gets you 50%. That's the same as Weeks 4 and 5, and it's right where the model landed when we tested it on the 2024 and 2025 seasons: about 6 calls in 10.

Ranges: 88% of players finished inside the range we gave them. Every player gets a likely range, built to catch 8 of every 10 games, so 80% is the target. This is the most this season and the first week since Week 3 that hit the target. Over all six weeks we're at 78%, a little short. All six surprises below finished above the top of their range, but only three of the six misses finished under the bottom of theirs.

Last Thursday's Start/Sit Post: Our Starts Went 3 for 5

Last Thursday we named five players to start and three to sit, plus four hurt players to start if they were cleared. A start counts as right if he finished as a starter in a 12-team league, which means top 12 at quarterback and tight end, or top 24 at running back and receiver.

Three of the five starts were right. Jordan Love finished QB7 with 20.2 points, and Kirk Cousins threw for 313 yards and finished QB9 with 18.5. Braelon Allen made it at RB19 on 17 carries for 78 yards.

The other two starts missed badly. Devaughn Vele caught 3 passes for 42 yards and finished WR50. Tyler Higbee had 4 catches for 22 yards and lost a fumble, which left him with 2.2 points at TE34. Those were our two worst calls of the week.

All three of our sits were ruled out, so we aren't counting them either way. Jalen Hurts was ruled out on Thursday, and the Eagles now expect him to miss the rest of the season. Rashee Rice and Jeremiyah Love were both ruled out on Friday.

Two of the four players we said to start if cleared got on the field. Chris Olave caught a touchdown and finished WR19 with 12.3 points. Caleb Williams threw for 305 yards but finished QB13, one spot outside a 12-team lineup. Quinshon Judkins was inactive and Saquon Barkley was ruled out.

By Position

Quarterbacks and running backs were the best this week, with 63% of calls right at both spots. Only one of 24 quarterbacks finished outside his range.

Tight ends were the weakest spot again. At 51%, our tight end calls were barely better than a coin flip. Two of the six surprises below were tight ends, and both beat their projection by more than 10 points.

The Misses

Bijan Robinson, Falcons. Projected 20.6, scored 6.3. He ran 9 times for 61 yards and caught 2 passes for -8 yards in a 31-23 loss to the Bears. The bottom of his range was 8.8.

Cam Skattebo, Giants. Projected 13.7, scored 0. He played 6 snaps and never touched the ball, a week after a costly overtime fumble. Our projection had no way to see a benching coming.

Derrick Henry, Ravens. Projected 15.3, scored 4.5. He ran 17 times for 58 yards and lost a fumble in a 13-10 loss to the Browns.

Kyren Williams (18.2 projected, 8.2 scored) and Puka Nacua (20.9 projected, 11.0 scored) both came in well under in the Rams' 18-16 loss to the Cardinals. Bo Nix (14.3 projected, 4.5 scored) went 17 of 27 for 107 yards in Thursday's win over Seattle. All three still finished inside their ranges.

The Surprises

Tre Tucker, Raiders. Projected 9.3, scored 24.2 on 5 catches for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 33-30 loss to the Bills. The top of his range was 18.7.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons. Projected 7.6, scored 20.5 on 5 catches for 60 yards and 2 touchdowns. The top of his range was 15.0.

Germie Bernard, Steelers. Projected 7.3, scored 20.2. He caught 11 of his 12 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown in a 26-19 win over the Buccaneers.

The Jaguars lost 34-31 to the Texans, but two of their players blew past their numbers. Trevor Lawrence (15.4 projected, 27.3 scored) threw for 306 yards and 4 touchdowns, and Bhayshul Tuten (10.6 projected, 22.7 scored) caught 2 touchdown passes. Isaiah Likely (10.8 projected, 20.9 scored) had 99 receiving yards and a touchdown, his second big week in a row after 26.9 points in Week 5.

The Season So Far

*Scored after the site launched, using only information available before each game.

Next Week

Week 7 projections are up now, starting with Thursday night's Patriots at Bears game. We'll grade them here next week.