Week 8 Report Card

We grade our own predictions every week. Week 8: last Thursday's start/sit post went 7 for 9, but the model's overall start/sit calls slipped to 58%, our weakest week this season. Tight ends were the bright spot. Here are the biggest misses and surprises.

Every week we grade our own predictions in public, good weeks and bad. This is the fifth week graded on numbers we posted before kickoff, and it covers every Week 8 game, Monday night's Bears-Seahawks game included.

All numbers below use half-PPR scoring and cover the players most people actually start: the top 24 quarterbacks, 36 running backs, 48 receivers and 18 tight ends by our projection.

The Short Version

Start/sit calls: 58% right. Take any two players at the same position. When the model ranked one above the other, he scored more 58% of the time. A coin flip gets you 50%. That's our weakest week this season. Every other week landed between 61% and 65%.

Ranges: 79% of players finished inside the range we gave them. Every player gets a likely range, built to catch 8 of every 10 games, so 80% is the target. We came in just short. Over all eight weeks we're also at 79%. Every one of the six misses below finished under the bottom of his range, and every one of the six surprises finished above the top of his.

Last Thursday's Start/Sit Post Went 7 for 9

Last Thursday we named five players to start and four to sit, plus three hurt players to start if they were cleared. A start counts as right if he finished as a starter in a 12-team league, which means top 12 at quarterback and tight end, or top 24 at running back and receiver. A sit counts as right if he played and finished below that line.

The starts went 4 for 5. Bucky Irving was the best of them. He ran 27 times for 170 yards and a touchdown and finished RB9 with 21.0 points, even with a lost fumble. The Buccaneers didn't complete a single pass in the rain and still beat the Falcons 16-0, so the ground game had to carry everything. Tucker Kraft caught 6 passes for 53 yards and a touchdown and finished TE6. Christian Watson caught 8 of 10 targets for 113 yards and finished WR15. Trevor Lawrence threw only 14 passes, but 3 of them went for touchdowns in a 42-7 win over the Colts, and he finished QB11.

Jacoby Brissett was the miss, and it was a bad one. He went 10 of 23 for 119 yards and an interception and finished QB26 with 3.5 points. Arizona pulled him in the third quarter while trailing 17-3, and Gardner Minshew came in and threw 3 touchdowns in the overtime win.

The sits went 3 for 4. Kyle Pitts caught 2 passes for 6 yards and finished TE42 in the Falcons' shutout loss. Xavier Worthy caught 3 of 6 targets for 13 yards and finished WR64. Justin Herbert threw for 257 yards with no touchdowns and 2 interceptions in a 24-9 loss to the Rams and finished QB22. Patrick Mahomes is the one we got wrong. He threw for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 28-24 loss at Denver and finished QB5 with 25.4 points.

All three players we said to start if cleared played, and two of them paid off. Jahmyr Gibbs ran 23 times for 153 yards and a touchdown and finished RB5 with 23.8 points. Matthew Golden caught 7 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets and finished WR7. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 7 passes for 46 yards and finished WR34, a miss. He was checked in the locker room after landing on his head in the first quarter, then came back into the game.

By Position

Tight ends had the best week of any position this season. When the model ranked one tight end over another, it was right 81% of the time, and 16 of the 18 finished inside their range.

Running backs had their worst week. Only 24 of 36 finished inside their range, and their start/sit calls were right 55% of the time, the lowest for running backs this season.

The Misses

Lamar Jackson, Ravens. Projected 18.9, scored 0.0. He hurt his right thumb on his first play back from his ankle injury and needs surgery. Tyler Huntley replaced him and left at halftime with a toe injury. Zay Flowers (13.5 projected, 0.0 scored) didn't catch any of his 5 targets in the 36-10 loss at Buffalo.

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers. Projected 15.2, scored 1.4. He went 0 for 3 passing in that rainy shutout of Atlanta. On the other side, Bijan Robinson (20.3 projected, 7.6 scored) ran 19 times for 76 yards and didn't catch his only target.

DK Metcalf, Steelers. Projected 11.9, scored 0.9. He caught 1 of his 6 targets for 4 yards in a 27-6 win over the Browns. The bottom of his range was 3.3.

Brissett (19.4 projected, 3.5 scored) belongs here too. Only Lamar Jackson fell further short of his projection.

The Surprises

Tyler Allgeier, Cardinals. Projected 7.1, scored 33.6, the biggest week of anyone we graded. He ran 11 times for 147 yards and a touchdown and caught all 5 of his targets for 44 yards and another score in the 33-30 overtime win at Dallas. Jeremiyah Love left that game early with his ankle. The top of Allgeier's range was 14.2.

Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins, Bengals. Burrow (20.8 projected, 39.5 scored) threw for 462 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 3 interceptions, in a 43-36 win over the Titans. Higgins (12.3 projected, 32.5 scored) caught 10 passes for 155 yards and 2 of those touchdowns. Both finished above the top of their ranges.

Adonai Mitchell, Jets. Projected 6.6, scored 23.7 on 7 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown in a 38-33 loss to the Raiders. The top of his range was 14.3.

Bhayshul Tuten (12.8 projected, 28.9 scored) ran for 104 yards and a touchdown and caught 2 passes for 55 yards and another score in the Jaguars' 42-7 win. Josh Jacobs (5.7 projected, 20.2 scored) scored twice in Thursday's win over the Panthers, his second game back. We had him far too low for the second week in a row.

The Season So Far

*Scored after the site launched, using only information available before each game.

Next Week

Week 9 projections are up now, starting with Thursday night's Jaguars at Ravens game. We'll grade them here next week.