Week 7 Report Card

We grade our own predictions every week. Week 7: all five of our Thursday sits were right, but only one of our five starts paid off. The model got 65% of its start/sit calls right, tied for our best week this season. Here are the biggest misses and surprises.

Every week we grade our own predictions in public, good weeks and bad. This is the fourth week graded on numbers we posted before kickoff, and it covers every Week 7 game, Monday night's Cowboys-Eagles game included.

All numbers below use half-PPR scoring and cover the players most people actually start: the top 24 quarterbacks, 36 running backs, 48 receivers and 18 tight ends by our projection.

The Short Version

Start/sit calls: 65% right. Take any two players at the same position. When the model ranked one above the other, he scored more 65% of the time. A coin flip gets you 50%. That ties Week 3 for our best week this season, and it's the best of the four weeks we've graded on numbers posted before kickoff. The first three of those all landed at 61%.

Ranges: 85% of players finished inside the range we gave them. Every player gets a likely range, built to catch 8 of every 10 games, so 80% is the target. That's the second week in a row above the target. Over all seven weeks we're at 79%, just short of it. Five of the six surprises below finished above the top of their range, and two of the six misses finished under the bottom of theirs.

Last Thursday's Start/Sit Post Went 6 for 10

Last Thursday we named five players to start and five to sit, plus four hurt players to start if they were cleared. A start counts as right if he finished as a starter in a 12-team league, which means top 12 at quarterback and tight end, or top 24 at running back and receiver. A sit counts as right if he played and finished below that line.

The sits went 5 for 5. Patrick Mahomes went 19 of 33 for 165 yards with no touchdowns and an interception in a 20-3 loss at Seattle, and finished QB26 with 6.0 points. Travis Kelce finished TE23 with 4 catches for 44 yards. Xavier Worthy caught 3 passes for 11 yards and finished WR65, and Keenan Allen finished WR45. Jacoby Brissett was the close one: he finished QB15 with 16.5 points, three spots below a 12-team lineup.

The starts went 1 for 5, and that's on us. D'Andre Swift was the one that worked. He ran 22 times for 78 yards and a touchdown and finished RB13 with 17.0 points. C.J. Stroud threw 2 touchdowns but only 153 yards and finished QB14, so our start and our sit at quarterback scored almost exactly the same. Woody Marks got 19 carries but only 66 yards and finished RB30. DK Metcalf caught 2 of 6 targets for 56 yards and finished WR33. Michael Mayer caught 3 passes for 32 yards and finished TE26.

Two of the four players we said to start if cleared got on the field. Saquon Barkley scored on 7 carries for 62 yards in his first game back and finished RB20 with 14.1 points, before he left Monday night's game with a back injury. Jordan Love threw for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns but finished QB13, one spot outside a 12-team lineup. Breece Hall was inactive and Mike Evans was ruled out, so they don't count either way.

By Position

Every quarterback finished inside his range, a first this season. Receivers had their best week of start/sit calls this season at 67%.

Tight ends bounced back. Last week they were our weakest spot at 51%, barely better than a coin flip. This week they tied receivers for the best mark at 67%, and they had the smallest average miss of any position.

The Misses

Bryce Young, Panthers. Projected 16.7, scored 5.4. He went 14 of 27 for 163 yards with a touchdown, 2 interceptions and a lost fumble in a 43-13 loss to the Buccaneers. That landed right on the bottom of his range.

Two more Panthers missed in the same game. Chuba Hubbard (18.1 projected, 8.0 scored) ran 7 times for 33 yards and caught 4 passes for 27. Jalen Coker (10.6 projected, 1.4 scored) caught 1 of his 4 targets for 9 yards, below the bottom of his range.

Nico Collins, Texans. Projected 11.9, scored 1.6. He caught 2 of his 5 targets for 6 yards in a 27-21 loss to the Giants. The bottom of his range was 3.1.

Daniel Jones (12.7 projected, 3.6 scored) went 13 of 22 for 108 yards and an interception in a 16-10 loss at Minnesota. Mahomes (14.9 projected at kickoff, 6.0 scored) also makes this list, though he was one of our sits. Both finished inside their ranges.

The Surprises

Tony Pollard, Titans. Projected 14.0, scored 35.0, the biggest week of anyone we graded. He ran 25 times for 129 yards and 3 touchdowns and caught 3 passes for 26 yards in a 27-24 loss to the Browns. The top of his range was 24.9.

Tee Higgins and Zay Flowers. Both receivers blew past their numbers in the Bengals' 35-13 win in Baltimore. Higgins (11.2 projected, 23.8 scored) caught 6 passes for 148 yards and a touchdown. Flowers (10.5 projected, 23.7 scored) caught 8 for 137 and a touchdown on the losing side. Both finished above the top of their ranges.

Jameson Williams, Lions. Projected 9.7, scored 23.6 on 5 catches for 91 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 20-17 win over the Packers. The top of his range was 19.2.

Luther Burden III (10.9 projected, 21.7 scored) turned 4 catches into 130 yards and a touchdown in Thursday's win over the Patriots, just over the top of his range at 21.1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (16.2 projected, 26.8 scored) caught 9 passes for 150 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs, still inside his range.

The Season So Far

*Scored after the site launched, using only information available before each game.

Next Week

Week 8 projections are up now, starting with Thursday night's Panthers at Packers game. We'll grade them here next week.