Week 5 Report Card

We grade our own predictions every week. Week 5: our Start/Sit post went 9 for 10, and 61% of all start/sit calls were right. Here are the biggest misses and surprises.

Every week we grade our own predictions in public, good weeks and bad. This is the second week graded on numbers we posted before kickoff, and it covers every Week 5 game, Monday night's Bills-Rams game included.

All numbers below use half-PPR scoring and cover the players most people actually start: the top 24 quarterbacks, 36 running backs, 48 receivers and 18 tight ends by our projection.

The Short Version

Start/sit calls: 61% right. Take any two players at the same position. When the model ranked one above the other, he scored more 61% of the time. A coin flip gets you 50%. That's the same as Week 4, and it's right where the model landed when we tested it on the 2024 and 2025 seasons: about 6 calls in 10.

Ranges: 74% of players finished inside the range we gave them. Every player gets a likely range, built to catch 8 of every 10 games, so 80% is the target. We came in short this week, and Week 3 is still the only week this season that hit it. The big games were bigger than we allowed for. All five surprises below finished above the top of their range, and all five misses finished under the bottom of theirs.

Last Thursday's Start/Sit Post Went 9 for 10

Last Thursday we named five players to start and five to sit. A start counts as right if he finished as a starter in a 12-team league, which means top 12 at quarterback and tight end, or top 24 at running back and receiver. A sit counts as right if he finished below that line or didn't play.

All five starts finished as starters. Jacoby Brissett was the best of them at QB8 with 24.8 points. Garrett Wilson (WR9) and Davante Adams (WR10) both scored over 19, and Tyler Higbee finished TE10. Javonte Williams was the weakest at RB19 with 13.2 points, well short of the RB4 week we expected.

Four of the five sits were right. Jalen Hurts finished QB20 and Tony Pollard finished RB36. Saquon Barkley was ruled out for the London game, and Terry McLaurin finished WR25, one spot below the line. Our one miss was Zay Flowers, who finished WR22 with 10.6 points, just inside it.

The two Bengals we said to start if cleared went different ways. Ja'Marr Chase played and finished WR13. Tee Higgins played too and scored only 3.2 points.

By Position

Quarterbacks were the best part of the week again. Two of every three calls were right, the same as Week 4.

Tight ends were the weakest again, with only 11 of 18 inside their range. Touchdowns make up a big share of a tight end's points, and one catch in the end zone can swing his week. Isaiah Likely (below) caught two.

The Misses

Tyler Shough, Saints. Projected 16.6, scored -0.2. He went 16 of 25 for 96 yards with two interceptions as Minnesota's defense controlled the game in a 23-13 Vikings win.

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys. Projected 15.9, scored 1.9 on 2 catches for 9 yards. He hurt his quad on Thursday night against the Buccaneers and missed Dallas's last drive. Check his status before you set your Week 6 lineup.

Jeremiyah Love, Cardinals. Projected 15.1, scored 2.2 on 12 carries for 22 yards. In a 45-21 loss to the Lions, Arizona pulled him early. That's his second straight week well under his number.

Michael Wilson, Cardinals. Projected 16.5, scored 5.3 on 4 catches for 30 yards in that same blowout.

Chase Brown (15.9 projected, 5.5 scored) also came in well under. He managed 60 yards on 16 touches and lost a fumble in Miami.

The Surprises

Drake Maye, Patriots. Projected 17.3, scored 39.5. He threw for 374 yards and 4 touchdowns and ran in a fifth score in a 45-17 win over the Raiders. The top of his range was 28.5.

Isaiah Likely, Giants. Projected 7.5, scored 26.9 on 11 catches for 94 yards and 2 touchdowns. The top of his range was 14.6, so this one came out of nowhere for us.

Jaylen Warren, Steelers. Projected 15.4, scored 33.8. He ran for 101 yards and caught 6 passes for 87 more, with a touchdown each way.

Bucky Irving (11.6 projected, 30.5 scored on 165 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns) and Christian Watson (11.0 projected, 29.3 scored on 143 yards and 2 touchdowns) also blew past their numbers.

The Season So Far

*Scored after the site launched, using only information available before each game.

Next Week

Week 6 projections are up now. We'll grade them here next week.