Week 5 Injury Return Watch

When the injured stars should be back and what the model thinks they're worth when they are. Ja'Marr Chase, Saquon Barkley, Caleb Williams, Justin Jefferson and more.

A lot of fantasy rosters have a star stuck on the bench this week. Ja'Marr Chase is in the concussion protocol, and Saquon Barkley and Caleb Williams are expected to miss Week 5. This is when each of the big names should be back, and what the model thinks he's worth when he is.

Rankings are half PPR for a 12-team league, from Wednesday morning.

How We Count a Missed Game

The model plays out every game left on the schedule 10,000 times. In each one, a hurt player either plays or he doesn't, so we can count how many of the 12 games left he plays on average.

In the games he's expected to miss, our rest-of-season rankings count the points a waiver pickup would score, because that's who you'd actually start. So a star who sits for two or three weeks only slides a little.

Every timeline below links to the news report it comes from.

Back This Week

Jayden Daniels, Commanders. He sat out Week 4 with an elbow injury. Coach Dan Quinn's plan is a full week of practice and then a start against the Giants. We give him a 90% chance to play, and he's QB13 for Week 5 at 16.1 points. Rest of season, he's QB9.

Game-Time Decisions

For these players we show how often players with the same injury played the next week, using regular-season injuries to quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends from 2022 to 2025. Chase's concussion number goes back one more season, to 2021. When a report gives the player's own timeline or the grade of his injury, we go with that instead.

"Per game when he plays" ranks him by the points he scores in the games he suits up for, ignoring the games he misses.

Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals. He suffered a concussion against the Jaguars and was still in the protocol on Monday. From 2021 to 2025, quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends played the very next game after a concussion 28% of the time.

The last practice report of the week tells you a lot more. In those same seasons, players who were back to a full practice by then played about 3 times in 4. Players who sat out that last practice almost never did. Either way, he's still a top-6 receiver per game in our numbers, so hold him.

Justin Jefferson, Vikings. He missed Week 4 with a sprained ankle, and on Monday his coach had no clear read yet on whether he'll play in New Orleans. Players who missed one game with an ankle injury played the next week 28% of the time. When he's on the field he's still WR9 per game.

Terry McLaurin, Commanders. He hurt his hamstring in practice before the London game and sat out Week 4. No report we found gives the grade of the strain, so we use all hamstring injuries. Players who missed one game with a hamstring injury played the next week 39% of the time.

Dallas Goedert, Eagles. He has missed two games with a sprained knee. His exact kind of knee sprain doesn't happen often enough for us to study by itself, so the 42% covers all knee injuries that didn't land a player on injured reserve.

DeVonta Smith, Eagles. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported he could miss two to three games with his hamstring, and Week 4 was the first. That points to a return in Week 6 or 7, so we'd plan without him this week.

Breece Hall, Jets. He's been week to week with a quad injury since the Lions game. We read "week to week" as one to three weeks, so this week falls inside that window, and we give him a 25% chance to play. Per game, he's a top-12 running back.

The Eagles play Jacksonville in London at 9:30am Eastern on Sunday, hours before everyone else, so have a backup ready for Goedert and Smith before then.

Out This Week, Back Soon

Saquon Barkley, Eagles. His hamstring is week to week but not a long-term problem, and he's unlikely to play in London. Per game when he plays, the model has him as RB20, so his RB25 ranking isn't only about the games he'll miss.

Caleb Williams, Bears. A Grade 2 hamstring strain that was expected to cost him three to four weeks. He's out again against Green Bay, with Tyson Bagent starting. He's still QB10 rest of season, so he's worth keeping on your bench.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens. A sprained ankle leaves him only an outside chance to play in Atlanta, and Tyler Huntley would start if he can't. The same report says it could keep him out more than one game, depending on how his rehab goes.

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers. A dislocated thumb will keep him out at least three weeks, and Week 7 is the earliest he can be back.

Travis Etienne, Saints. On injured reserve with a hamstring injury, and his coach expects him to miss at least four weeks.

Where We Might Be Wrong

A.J. Brown, Patriots. He's on injured reserve with an ankle injury, and the Patriots hope he's back by Week 6. For players on injured reserve, our model uses the same return timeline whatever the injury is, so we're leaving his rest-of-season ranking out of this. Per game when he plays, he's WR25.

The model uses one timeline because it learns from the NFL's weekly roster lists, and those say a player is on injured reserve but not why. So it goes by how long all players on injured reserve stayed out from 2022 to 2025. That changes as soon as there's firm news. When a team or a solid report gives a timeline, the model switches to it, which is how Travis Etienne gets his Week 9 or 10 return. A team saying it hopes he's back isn't a firm timeline, so it hasn't changed Brown's numbers yet. If the Patriots give a return date or bring him back, his projection updates the next morning. If New England is right, he'll play more games than our model expects, so don't cut him.

Before You Make a Move

Most of this week's practice reports come out after we ran these numbers, so check the projections page, which updates every day, before you set your lineup.