Week 5 Buy Low, Sell High

Three players to trade for before their points catch up to their workload, led by Michael Wilson, and three to sell while their numbers look good, led by Mike Gesicki.

Four weeks in, some players' fantasy points don't match the work they're getting. A receiver can see plenty of targets and still post quiet stat lines. A running back can score three touchdowns in one game on 14 carries. Our model looks past the points to the work underneath, mostly how often a player gets the ball.

So we compare two ranks for each player. The first is where he ranks in points per game so far this season. The second is where our model ranks him for the rest of the season. A buy low is a player the model ranks much higher than his points so far. A sell high is the opposite: his points so far are well ahead of what the model expects from here.

Everything is half PPR for a 12-team league. Points per game come from the nflverse weekly stats, counting players with at least three games. The rest-of-season ranks are from Friday morning's update of our live rankings, which change every day.

Buy Low

Michael Wilson, Cardinals. He's WR20 in points per game so far (11.1) but WR7 for the rest of the season in our model. He saw 7 targets in each of the first two games, then 17 and 13 in the last two, and he's been on the field for 92% of Arizona's snaps. The model sets aside the extra targets he picked up while Kendrick Bourne sat in Week 4, and it still expects about 13.5 points a game from here.

Quinshon Judkins, Browns. He's RB25 in points per game (10.2) and RB12 for the rest of the season. He has 59 carries and 16 targets in four games but only one touchdown. That's lead-back work with bad touchdown luck. Touchdowns swing a lot from week to week, and the carries are what the model trusts. It has him at about 14.7 points a game from here.

Tucker Kraft, Packers. He's TE21 in points per game (7.2) and TE8 for the rest of the season. He has 24 targets in four games, plays 83% of the Packers' snaps and has scored once. The model expects about 9.5 points a game from here. If your tight end has been a zero, he's a cheap trade target.

Sell High

Mike Gesicki, Bengals. He's TE3 in points per game (13.0) but TE34 for the rest of the season. He's scored in all three games he's played, on just 15 targets in total, and he's on the field for about half of Cincinnati's snaps. A touchdown every game on that little work won't last. The model has him at about 5.8 points a game from here. If someone in your league sees a top-three tight end, take the offer.

Brian Robinson, Falcons. He's RB19 in points per game (11.8) and RB44 for the rest of the season. More than half of his points came in Week 4, when he scored three touchdowns on 14 carries. Playing behind Bijan Robinson, he's averaged 11 carries a game and has 3 catches all season. The model expects about 7.4 points a game from here.

Denzel Boston, Browns. He's WR17 in points per game (12.2) and WR34 for the rest of the season. The rookie has two touchdowns on 22 targets, about five and a half a game. The model already expects his role to grow a little as the season goes on, and it still has him at about 9.8 points a game. That's a solid bench receiver. His numbers look like a starter's right now, and that's when to shop him.

These ranks move every day as news comes in, so check the live rankings before you send an offer.