Week 4 Report Card

We grade our own predictions every week. Week 4: 61% of start/sit calls right, 78% of players inside their range, plus the biggest misses and surprises.

Every week we grade our own predictions in public, good weeks and bad. Week 4 is the first week the model's numbers were posted on this site before kickoff, so it's the first real test. Weeks 1 to 3 were scored after the fact, using only what was known before each game.

All numbers below use half-PPR scoring and cover the players most people actually start: the top 24 quarterbacks, 36 running backs, 48 receivers and 18 tight ends by our projection.

The Short Version

Start/sit calls: 61% right. Take any two players at the same position. When the model ranked one above the other, he scored more 61% of the time. A coin flip gets you 50%. When we tested the model on every week of the 2024 and 2025 seasons, it landed between 58% and 64% in a typical week, so this was a normal week.

Ranges: 78% of players finished inside the range we gave them. Every player gets a likely range, and it's built to catch 8 of every 10 games. So 80% is the target. We came in a little short.

By Position

Quarterbacks were the best part of the week. Two of every three calls were right, and 23 of 24 landed inside their range.

Tight ends were the worst. 51% is a coin flip. A big share of a tight end's points come from touchdowns, and one catch in the end zone can swing his whole week, so this is the position we trust least from week to week.

The Misses

Case Keenum, Bears. Projected 14.3, scored 0. Tyson Bagent got the start for Chicago, and our numbers still had Keenum as the starter.

Rashee Rice, Chiefs. Projected 11.3, scored 0. He hurt his hamstring in the first half against the Raiders and didn't come back. Nobody sees an in-game injury coming, and it's one of the reasons the low end of every range sits so low.

Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals. Projected 16.2, scored 4.2. He suffered a concussion against the Jaguars and missed the second half. He's in the concussion protocol this week, so check his status before you set your lineup.

Garrett Wilson, Jets. Projected 15.9, scored 4.2 on 3 catches for 27 yards. He was healthy and just didn't see the ball, with 4 targets all game. One quiet week doesn't change our view of him.

Josh Downs (13.9 projected, 3.1 scored) also came in well under, and so did Jeremiyah Love (15.8 projected, 6.0 scored), who played through a sore ankle and sat out the final drive.

The Surprises

Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers. Projected 14.5. He caught 14 passes for 192 yards and scored 38.2. The top of his range was 27. A week like that is exactly the 1-in-10 game the range leaves out on purpose.

Kyle Monangai, Bears. Projected 9.1, scored 27.5 on 30 carries for 146 yards.

CeeDee Lamb (12.1 projected, 32.8 scored) and Kyren Williams (12.3 projected, 31.7 scored) also blew past their numbers.

The Season So Far

*Scored after the site launched, using only information available before each game.

Next Week

Week 5 projections are up now. We'll grade them here next week.