Risers, Fallers and Trade Targets After Week 7

KC Concepcion climbed the most in our rest-of-season rankings since last Friday, and Garrett Wilson slid for the second week in a row. Plus three players to trade for and three to sell.

Every day the model plays out the rest of the NFL season 10,000 times, and our rest-of-season rankings come from those runs. This post compares Friday's rankings with last Friday's, so it covers the rest of the Week 7 games and Thursday night's Panthers at Packers game. Rankings are half PPR for a 12-team league.

We left quarterbacks off these lists. A quarterback's ranking mostly moves with who's starting, so the list would just be a depth chart. We also only list players who were in the top 36 receivers, top 30 running backs or top 15 tight ends in one of the two weeks, because deep ranks are bunched so close together that small changes swing them.

How We Count Byes and Injuries

When one of your players is on bye or hurt, you don't take a zero. You start someone off waivers. So our rankings give every player what a waiver pickup would score in his bye week and in the games we expect him to miss. A missed game only costs him the gap between himself and the fill-in.

The Risers

KC Concepcion, Browns. 10 targets, 8 catches and 129 yards against Tennessee, his best game as a pro. The model now expects about 11.8 points a game from him, up from 10.5. More on him under Buy Low.

Ollie Gordon II, Dolphins. 25 carries, 103 yards and a touchdown against the Jets. De'Von Achane tore his ACL in September and is out for the season, and Gordon is getting more of that work. The model has him at about 10.0 points a game from here, up from 8.8.

Colston Loveland, Bears. Chicago hasn't played since our last post, so this jump is the model updating, not a new game. It now expects about 10.2 points a game from him, up from 8.5. He has 19 targets and a touchdown in each of his last two games. More under Buy Low.

Tony Pollard and Javonte Williams. Pollard ran 25 times for 129 yards and three touchdowns against Cleveland, good for 35.0 half-PPR points. Williams ran 25 times for 155 yards and a touchdown against Philadelphia, and the model now has him at about 16.0 points a game, up from 14.9.

Tre Tucker, Raiders. 12 targets, 5 catches, 103 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. He was one of our sells last week, and he's still only WR36, so we'd still sell.

Jameson Williams, Lions. 9 targets, 5 catches, 91 yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay.

James Cook and Tyler Warren. Buffalo was on bye, and Warren was inactive with a groin injury for the second game in a row. Neither man's projection moved much. Most of the climb came from players around them slipping: Chase Brown, Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams at running back, George Kittle and Sam LaPorta at tight end. Warren was limited in Thursday's practice, per the official practice report.

Tee Higgins and Christian Watson. Higgins caught 6 of 7 targets for 148 yards and a touchdown against Baltimore. Watson caught 8 of 10 for 113 yards on Thursday night, then said after the game that he broke a rib. Watch his practice reports next week.

The Fallers

Garrett Wilson, Jets. 3 targets, 2 catches and 26 yards against Miami, and he's on this list for the second week in a row. His teammate Omar Cooper Jr. caught all 5 of his targets for 115 yards and a touchdown in the same game. The model has Wilson at about 10.7 points a game from here, down from 11.4.

Carnell Tate, Titans. He caught 5 of 7 targets for 69 yards against Cleveland but hurt his shoulder in that game. He sat out Wednesday's practice, though his coach didn't call it a major concern, and he missed Thursday too, per the official practice report.

DK Metcalf and Germie Bernard, Steelers. Both were risers last week. Against New Orleans, Metcalf caught 2 of 6 targets for 56 yards, and Bernard caught 3 of 5 for 27. The model now has Metcalf at about 12.1 points a game, down from 13.0. He's still WR19, so keep starting him.

Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker, Panthers. Two quiet games for both. McMillan had 4 catches for 40 yards in Week 7, then 6 for 58 on 11 targets Thursday night. Coker had 1 catch for 9 yards in Week 7 and 2 for 36 and a touchdown on Thursday.

Aaron Jones, Vikings. He re-injured the knee he sprained in Week 2 against Indianapolis and didn't return. His coach calls him day-to-day. He sat out Wednesday's practice and was limited Thursday, per the official practice report.

Saquon Barkley, Eagles. He was one of our buy lows last week. He came back Monday from his hamstring injury and ran 7 times for 62 yards and a touchdown, then left the game with a back injury. His coach said he was on a pitch count. He didn't practice Thursday, per the official practice report.

Juwan Johnson, Saints. 1 catch for 7 yards on 3 targets against Pittsburgh, after no catches on 2 targets the week before. New Orleans is on bye this week.

Buy Low

These compare two ranks for each player: where he ranks in points per game so far this season, and where the model ranks him for the rest of the season. A buy low is a player the model ranks well above his points so far. Points per game come from the nflverse weekly stats, counting players with at least three games.

KC Concepcion, Browns. He's WR56 in points per game so far (6.8) but WR21 for the rest of the season. He has 45 targets in seven games and no touchdowns yet. His average also counts a Week 5 game he left in the first quarter with a head injury. The model expects about 11.8 points a game from here.

Chase Brown, Bengals. He's RB25 in points per game (10.1 over six games) and RB7 for the rest of the season. He has 82 carries and 33 targets, and only one touchdown, back in Week 1. The model has him at about 15.4 points a game from here, which is a strong RB2.

Colston Loveland, Bears. He's TE21 in points per game (7.1) and TE4 for the rest of the season. He has 42 targets in seven games, and 19 of them came in the last two. The model expects about 10.2 points a game. If someone in your league still sees him as a backup, ask.

Sell High

Keon Coleman, Bills. He's WR35 in points per game (9.3 over six games) but WR69 for the rest of the season. He has three touchdowns on 24 targets, and that pace is hard to keep up. The model has him at about 6.5 points a game from here.

Braelon Allen, Jets. He's RB26 in points per game (9.8) and RB38 for the rest of the season. Breece Hall hasn't played since Week 3 and was inactive in Week 7 with his quad injury. Allen has done his best work with Hall out. In Weeks 1 to 3, with Hall playing, he scored 15.2 points in total. The model expects about 8.8 points a game from here, so sell before Hall is back.

Mason Taylor, Jets. He's TE12 in points per game (8.2 over four games) and TE29 for the rest of the season. 22.7 of his 32.7 points came in Week 7, when he caught two touchdowns. The model has him at about 6.2 points a game.

Before You Trade

These ranks are from Friday, and injury news changes them every day. Check the live rankings before you send an offer.