Risers, Fallers and Trade Targets After Week 6

Germie Bernard climbed the most and Davante Adams slid the furthest in our rest-of-season rankings since last Friday. Plus three players to trade for and three to sell.

Every day the model plays out the rest of the NFL season 10,000 times, and our rest-of-season rankings come from those runs. This post compares Friday's rankings with last Friday's, so it covers the rest of the Week 6 games and Thursday night's Patriots at Bears game. Rankings are half PPR for a 12-team league.

We left quarterbacks off these lists. A quarterback's ranking mostly moves with who's starting, so the list would just be a depth chart. We also only list players who were in the top 36 receivers, top 30 running backs or top 15 tight ends in one of the two weeks, because deep ranks are bunched so close together that small changes swing them.

How We Count Byes and Injuries

When one of your players is on bye or hurt, you don't take a zero. You start someone off waivers. So our rankings give every player what a waiver pickup would score in his bye week and in the games we expect him to miss. A missed game only costs him the gap between himself and the fill-in.

The Risers

Germie Bernard, Steelers. 12 targets, 11 catches, 87 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay. Michael Pittman is out with a reinjured foot, and Bernard is getting a lot of that work. The model now expects about 9.8 points a game from him, up from 7.6. His teammate DK Metcalf had 15 targets in the same game, with 11 catches for 93 yards.

Stefon Diggs, Commanders. He came back from his hamstring injury in Week 6 and caught 6 of 7 targets for 44 yards and a touchdown. In the same game, Terry McLaurin tore his patellar tendon and is out for the season. That leaves Diggs as Washington's top receiver, and the model has him at about 11.1 points a game from here, up from 9.1.

Rachaad White, Commanders. 7 carries and 4 catches, with a touchdown, while Jacory Croskey-Merritt sat with a groin injury. The model now has White at about 11.2 points a game, up from 8.9.

Jalen Coker, Panthers. Back from his quad injury, he saw 13 targets and caught 6 for 97 yards in Philadelphia.

Chase Brown, Bengals. Cincinnati was on bye, so Brown didn't play. The model nudged him up to about 15.9 points a game from 15.6, and the backs from RB6 to RB9 were bunched close enough that the small bump, plus Derrick Henry's slide, moved him into the top five.

Saquon Barkley, Eagles. He was back at practice Thursday and is in line to play Monday against Dallas after missing two games with a hamstring injury. More on him under Buy Low.

Isaiah Likely and Colston Loveland. Likely had 11 targets, 6 catches, 99 yards and a touchdown for the Giants. Loveland caught a touchdown in Week 6, then saw 12 targets on Thursday night and scored again.

The Fallers

Davante Adams, Rams. He ruptured his hamstring and will have a procedure. His coach expects him to miss 6 to 10 weeks. That timeline runs into the fantasy playoffs. Hold him if you have the bench room, but don't count on him before December.

Mike Evans, 49ers. He left Monday's win after aggravating his sore Achilles, then missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with rib and Achilles soreness. The 49ers' general manager called his status for Sunday at Atlanta still to be decided. The model now expects about 10.7 points a game from him, down from 12.1.

Garrett Wilson, Jets. 6 targets, 4 catches and 44 yards against New England, and the Jets got Omar Cooper Jr. back from injured reserve the day before. The model has Wilson at about 11.4 points a game from here, down from 13.2.

Derrick Henry, Ravens. 17 carries for 58 yards and 1 catch in Week 6. He's still RB10, and the model expects about 16.1 points a game from him, down from 16.9.

Denzel Boston, Browns. 1 catch for 15 yards on 5 targets, and he was limited in Thursday's practice with a foot injury, per the official practice report. His teammate Harold Fannin Jr. has 1 catch in each of the last two games.

Tyler Warren, Colts. He was inactive in Week 6 with a groin injury, the first game he's missed as a pro, and he missed practice again Thursday, per the official practice report.

Buy Low

These compare two ranks for each player: where he ranks in points per game so far this season, and where the model ranks him for the rest of the season. A buy low is a player the model ranks well above his points so far. Points per game come from the nflverse weekly stats, counting players with at least three games.

Michael Wilson, Cardinals. He's WR35 in points per game so far (9.1) but WR12 for the rest of the season. He has 58 targets in six games and only one touchdown. The targets are what the model trusts, and it expects about 13.1 points a game from here.

Saquon Barkley, Eagles. He's RB47 in points per game (5.2 over four games) and RB18 for the rest of the season. He has 36 carries for 182 yards and no touchdowns, then missed two games with his hamstring. If he plays Monday as expected, the model has him at about 13.5 points a game from here. Whoever has him may be tired of waiting, and that's a good time to ask.

Tucker Kraft, Packers. He's TE19 in points per game (7.3) and TE8 for the rest of the season. He has 37 targets in six games and one touchdown. The model expects about 9.6 points a game, which is a starting tight end in a 12-team league.

Sell High

Mike Gesicki, Bengals. He's TE6 in points per game (11.5 over four games) but TE33 for the rest of the season. He has four touchdowns on 17 targets, and that pace is hard to keep up. The model has him at about 5.8 points a game from here.

Tre Tucker, Raiders. He's WR24 in points per game (11.1) and WR42 for the rest of the season. He has three touchdowns on 35 targets. The model expects about 8.8 points a game, so sell him while his line looks like a starter's.

Jaylin Noel, Texans. He's WR32 in points per game (9.4) and WR96 for the rest of the season. He has 21 targets in six games, and two touchdowns are doing a lot of the work in his average. The model has him at about 4.8 points a game. If someone in your league sees a flex, take the offer.

Before You Trade

These ranks are from Friday, and injury news changes them every day. Check the live rankings before you send an offer.