Risers, Fallers and Trade Targets After Week 5

Mike Evans climbed the most and Deebo Samuel slid the furthest in our rest-of-season rankings since last Friday. Plus three players to trade for and three to sell.

Every day the model plays out the rest of the NFL season 10,000 times, and our rest-of-season rankings come from those runs. This post compares Friday's rankings with last Friday's, so it covers the Week 5 games and Thursday night's Seahawks at Broncos game. Rankings are half PPR for a 12-team league.

We left quarterbacks off these lists. A quarterback's ranking mostly moves with who's starting, so the list would just be a depth chart. We also only list players who were in the top 36 receivers, top 30 running backs or top 15 tight ends in one of the two weeks, because deep ranks are bunched so close together that small changes swing them.

How We Count Byes and Injuries

When one of your players is on bye or hurt, you don't take a zero. You start someone off waivers. So our rankings give every player what a waiver pickup would score in his bye week and in the games we expect him to miss. A player who already had his bye doesn't get a head start on everyone else, and a missed game only costs him the gap between himself and the fill-in.

The Risers

Mike Evans, 49ers. 10 targets, 7 catches, 113 yards and a touchdown in Week 5. Deebo Samuel is out for a while (more on that below), so more of the ball goes to Evans. One thing to watch: Evans missed Thursday's practice with a sore Achilles on top of his rib injury. His coach called it soreness, and the 49ers don't play until Monday.

Xavier Worthy, Chiefs. Worthy was on bye in Week 5, so his move comes from his teammate Rashee Rice. Andy Reid said Rice's hamstring could take one or two weeks, and the model now expects Rice to miss about two more games than it did a week ago. Worthy gets more of the ball in each game Rice sits, so the model now expects about 10.6 points a game from him, up from 10.0.

Malik Nabers, Giants. 20 targets in Week 5, with 11 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown. The model now has him at about 14.5 points a game from here, up from 12.8, which makes him WR7. His teammate Isaiah Likely had 13 targets, 11 catches, 94 yards and two touchdowns, his second straight week with 12 or more targets.

George Pickens, Cowboys. 13 targets, 9 catches, 130 yards and a touchdown, a week after he saw 3 targets. Parker Washington had a big day in Jacksonville too: 6 catches for 124 yards and two touchdowns on 9 targets.

Keenan Allen, Colts. He missed Week 4, then played through a groin injury in Week 5 and saw 9 targets.

Brenton Strange, Jaguars. 8 targets in each of his last two games, with 14 catches between them. His teammate Bhayshul Tuten also moved up after 22 carries in Week 5.

J.K. Dobbins, Broncos. 18 carries and a touchdown in Week 5, then 17 carries and another touchdown on Thursday night. His teammate RJ Harvey went the other way, which you'll see below.

The Fallers

Deebo Samuel, 49ers. He hurt his hamstring in Seattle, and Kyle Shanahan said he'll be out at least a couple of weeks. Our numbers have him back around Week 9 or Week 10. He keeps some value because he'll be back for the stretch run, but every game he sits costs him.

Carnell Tate, Titans. 5 targets and 1 catch for 6 yards, a week after 12 targets. Cade Otton (4 targets) and TreVeyon Henderson (4 carries) had quiet weeks too.

RJ Harvey, Broncos. 1 target and 3 carries in Week 5, and 6 carries on Thursday night while Dobbins got 17. The model now expects about 9.9 points a game from him, down from 11.3.

Davante Adams, Rams. He scored twice in Week 5, but his targets have gone 13, 9 and 7 over the last three games. Some of his big early weeks came while Puka Nacua sat, and the model doesn't count that extra work as his normal role.

Two Browns slid for health reasons. KC Concepcion is in the concussion protocol after a 1-target game, and Quinshon Judkins missed Thursday's practice with an ankle injury, per the official practice report.

Buy Low

These compare two ranks for each player: where he ranks in points per game so far this season, and where the model ranks him for the rest of the season. A buy low is a player the model ranks well above his points so far. Points per game come from the nflverse weekly stats, counting players with at least three games.

DK Metcalf, Steelers. He's WR42 in points per game so far (7.8) but WR20 for the rest of the season. He has 37 targets in five games and only one touchdown. The targets are what the model trusts, and it expects about 11.7 points a game from here.

Chase Brown, Bengals. He's RB21 in points per game (10.6) and RB10 for the rest of the season. He has 71 carries and 28 targets in five games, with one touchdown. That's lead-back work, and the model has him at about 15.6 points a game from here.

Dalton Schultz, Texans. He's TE20 in points per game (7.3) and TE13 for the rest of the season. He has 31 targets and no touchdowns yet. The model expects about 8.3 points a game, and that's a fair price for a tight end in a 12-team league.

Sell High

Pat Freiermuth, Steelers. He's TE10 in points per game (10.2) but TE18 for the rest of the season. He has four touchdowns on 26 targets, and that pace is hard to keep up. The model has him at about 7.9 points a game from here.

Ollie Gordon II, Dolphins. He's RB19 in points per game (11.4) and RB41 for the rest of the season. He's scored in three straight games, but he has 5 targets all season, and Coach Jeff Hafley said every Dolphins back will have a role after De'Von Achane's injury. The model expects about 8 points a game from here.

Keon Coleman, Bills. He's WR35 in points per game (8.4) and WR73 for the rest of the season. He has 18 targets in five games, and one 116-yard game is doing a lot of the work in his average. The model has him at about 6.5 points a game. If someone sees him as a starter, take the offer.

Before You Trade

These ranks are from Friday, and injury news changes them every day. Check the live rankings before you send an offer.