How to Use Our Player Props Tool

A plain walk-through of the free Props tab on Pigskin Projections. What the bold number means, how to check a bet's price, what "edge" means, and how accurate the numbers have been.

Our Props tab takes the same 10,000 simulated games behind our fantasy rankings and turns them into a number for each stat, like passing yards or receptions. It's free, and this is how to read it.

For information and entertainment only. It's not betting advice. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and check the laws and age limits where you live.

Find Your Player

Open the Props tab and pick a position, or type a name in the Find box. Each column is one stat. By default the list shows starters and regular contributors. Tick the box to include backups, but trust those numbers less, because there's less to go on.

Read the Bold Number

The bold number is the middle of a player's simulated games. Half of them land above it and half below. That's where a fair over/under line would sit.

Take Puka Nacua against Arizona this week. His bold receiving yards number is 108.9, and the small "avg" under it is 119.3. The average is higher because a few huge games pull it up. For an over/under, the middle number is the one that matters.

Anytime touchdowns work differently. That column shows the chance he scores at least once. Nacua's is 53%.

Check a Bet

Tap any bold number. A panel opens with the line set at our middle number and both prices at -110. Type the line and prices you actually see.

The panel shows the chance of the over and the under, and the fair price: what the odds would be with no house edge. At Nacua's own middle number, 108.5 yards, each side wins 50% of the time. But a -110 price needs a bet to win about 52 times in 100 just to break even. That's the house's cut, and it's why the panel shows a small minus for both sides at our own number.

What "Edge" Means

Edge is how far our chance is above what the price needs. +6 means the bet wins 6 more times in 100 than the price needs to break even. The panel also shows what you'd win or lose per $100 if you made the same bet many times.

Treat an edge under about 5 as noise. And be careful when a line sits far from our number, because that can mean news came out after our update, like an injury report.

The "If He Plays" Rule

Every prop number assumes the player suits up, and for quarterbacks, that he starts. Most books cancel a prop when the player doesn't play, so this is the fair way to price it. Check the player's status before you lean on any number.

Same-Game Parlays

Bets from one game tend to win or lose together. When a quarterback has a big day, his top receiver usually does too, so the chance both hit is higher than multiplying the two chances. Pick a game in the Same-Game Parlay Pricer, add your legs, and it prices that in.

How Accurate Is It?

We re-ran the 2024 and 2025 seasons and checked every stat against what really happened, using settings each season never saw. If the numbers are honest, about half of real results should go over our middle number, and about 8 in 10 should land inside our range.

That's what happened. Receivers' receiving yards went over our middle 51% of the time and landed in our range 83% of the time. For anytime touchdowns, when we said 30%, players scored 30% of the time. The full table is at the bottom of the Props tab.

One catch: a position can run a few percent hot or cold from one season to the next. That's another reason to treat small edges as noise.

The numbers update every morning, so check the page on game day before you use them.