The Easiest and Toughest Fantasy Playoff Schedules
The Vikings and Cardinals have the easiest schedules for Weeks 15 to 17, and the Eagles have the toughest. Here are all 32 teams, broken down by position, and how much the schedule should matter in a trade.
Many fantasy leagues play their playoffs in Weeks 15, 16 and 17. If you're thinking about a trade, the playoff schedule is worth a look. Our model can put a number on it.
For every game left, the model estimates how many points each offense will score. It rates every offense and defense from the expected scores of their games this season and last season, then adds a small bump for playing at home. To measure the schedule alone, we compare each team's playoff games with what that same offense would score against an average defense on a neutral field. A team at +1.7 is expected to score 1.7 more points per game in Weeks 15 to 17 than it would against average opponents.
Everything here is from Wednesday morning's update. The schedule comes from the nflverse schedule. Player ranks are our rest-of-season ranks, half PPR for a 12-team league.
The Five Easiest Playoff Schedules
| Team | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | vs DET | vs WAS | @ NYJ | +1.7 |
| Cardinals | vs NYJ | @ NO | vs LV | +1.7 |
| Saints | @ TB | vs ARI | @ ATL | +1.5 |
| Raiders | vs DEN | vs TEN | @ ARI | +1.4 |
| Falcons | @ WAS | vs TB | vs NO | +1.4 |
The starters this helps: Justin Jefferson (WR15) and Aaron Jones (RB23) in Minnesota. Trey McBride (TE1), Michael Wilson (WR10) and Jacoby Brissett (QB10) in Arizona. Chris Olave (WR7) and Tyler Shough (QB11) in New Orleans. Ashton Jeanty (RB6) and Brock Bowers (TE2) in Las Vegas. Bijan Robinson (RB2) and Drake London (WR8) in Atlanta.
Arizona's Defense Shows Up Three Times
The model rates the Cardinals' defense as the easiest to score on in the league. The Jets play at Arizona in Week 15, the Saints host them in Week 16 and the Raiders go there in Week 17. That's a big reason the Saints and Raiders made the top five, and why the Jets come in sixth at +1.1.
The Cardinals' own offense gets a break too. They see the Jets, Saints and Raiders, and two of those three games are at home.
The Five Toughest Playoff Schedules
| Team | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | vs SEA | vs HOU | @ SF | -1.5 |
| Texans | vs JAX | @ PHI | @ GB | -1.4 |
| 49ers | @ LAC | @ KC | vs PHI | -1.3 |
| Patriots | @ KC | @ NYJ | vs DEN | -1.1 |
| Seahawks | @ PHI | vs LA | @ CAR | -0.9 |
The Eagles get the two defenses the model rates best, Seattle and Houston, back to back, then go to San Francisco. Saquon Barkley (RB20) and Dallas Goedert (TE12) are the starters who take the hit. The 49ers play two of their three on the road, which matters for Brock Purdy (QB8), Christian McCaffrey (RB11) and George Kittle (TE5). Drake Maye (QB6) draws two of the better defenses in Kansas City and Denver. Nico Collins (WR22) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR2) are on the list too.
Easy Now, Hard Later
Two teams flip from one of the easiest stretches to one of the toughest.
The Seahawks are at +2.0 per game from Week 9 to Week 14, the best of any team. Then they drop to -0.9 in the playoffs. The Eagles go from +1.5 to -1.5. If you have Smith-Njigba or Barkley, enjoy the next six weeks. If someone in your league is building for the playoffs, they may pay you for those players now.
Hard Now, Easy Later
It works the other way too. The Steelers go from -1.4 in Weeks 9 to 14 to +0.9 in the playoffs. The Raiders go from -1.1 to +1.4, and the Cardinals from -0.9 to +1.7. If a manager in your league sours on Jeanty, Bowers or Jaylen Warren (RB16) over the next month, that's a good time to ask about them.
Schedule Strength by Position
The numbers above are for the whole offense. To break it down by position, we look at what each defense has given up so far this season. We add up the half-PPR points that every quarterback, running back, receiver and tight end scored against each defense per game, using nflverse stats for Weeks 1 to 7. Then we compare each team's three playoff opponents with an average defense. A +4.7 for quarterbacks means those three defenses have given up 4.7 more points per game to quarterbacks than an average defense.
These numbers swing more than the whole-offense ones. Each defense has played only six or seven games, so one big afternoon can move a number a lot. Our model's projections don't use them. They rate a defense by the total points it gives up.
Quarterbacks
The Vikings have the easiest quarterback schedule at +4.7 (Lions, Commanders, Jets). The Bears (+3.3) and Jaguars (+3.2) are next, which helps Caleb Williams (QB7) and Trevor Lawrence (QB9). The Panthers (-3.8) and Commanders (-3.2) have the toughest. Matthew Stafford (QB1) and Drake Maye (QB6) are both at -2.2.
Running Backs
The Cardinals are easiest at +4.0, then the Dolphins (+3.5) and Buccaneers (+2.8), good news for Bucky Irving (RB13). The Bears (+2.2) help D'Andre Swift (RB15). The toughest belongs to the Lions at -3.1, so Jahmyr Gibbs (RB1) has the hardest running back schedule in the league. The Commanders (-2.8), Cowboys (-2.7), Ravens (-2.7) and Panthers (-2.5) are close behind, which matters for Javonte Williams (RB8), Derrick Henry (RB10) and Chuba Hubbard (RB12). He's still our RB1. A tough schedule doesn't change that.
Wide Receivers
The Bears top this list at +5.8, which helps Luther Burden III (WR21). The Texans are second at +5.0 for Nico Collins (WR22), even though their whole-offense schedule is one of the toughest. Their three opponents have given up a lot to receivers and much less to tight ends. The Jaguars (+3.7) help Parker Washington (WR17), and the Giants (+3.1) help Malik Nabers (WR5). The Chargers have the toughest at -5.5. The Panthers (-3.6) and Rams (-2.7) are tough draws for Tetairoa McMillan (WR14) and Puka Nacua (WR1).
Tight Ends
One defense drives most of this list. The Lions have given up 13.5 more points per game to tight ends than an average defense, and the Vikings, Giants and Bears all play Detroit in the playoffs. That's why the Vikings (+5.9), Giants (+3.9) and Bears (+3.4) are near the top, helping Isaiah Likely (TE8) and Colston Loveland (TE3). The Falcons (+4.0) are the other easy one, for Kyle Pitts (TE16). The Eagles have the toughest at -3.1, which hurts Dallas Goedert (TE12). The Texans (-2.9) and Lions (-2.7) are next, bad news for Dalton Schultz (TE13) and Sam LaPorta (TE4).
By Position, All 32 Teams
Points per game above or below an average defense, for each team's Week 15 to 17 opponents.
| Team | QB | RB | WR | TE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | -1.5 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.6 |
| Bears | +3.3 | +2.2 | +5.8 | +3.4 |
| Bengals | +0.1 | +1.5 | -1.0 | -0.4 |
| Bills | +1.2 | +0.7 | -3.9 | +2.5 |
| Broncos | +2.2 | +2.4 | +3.4 | +1.4 |
| Browns | +1.3 | -1.3 | +0.3 | -0.9 |
| Buccaneers | +0.5 | +2.8 | -1.2 | +0.2 |
| Cardinals | +1.2 | +4.0 | -0.5 | +1.4 |
| Chargers | -1.1 | +0.5 | -5.5 | +2.5 |
| Chiefs | -1.9 | +0.2 | -0.9 | -2.1 |
| Colts | -1.3 | -1.8 | +0.9 | -0.6 |
| Commanders | -3.2 | -2.8 | +0.3 | -2.0 |
| Cowboys | +0.6 | -2.7 | +0.6 | -2.2 |
| Dolphins | -0.4 | +3.5 | +3.7 | -1.9 |
| Eagles | -2.2 | -0.4 | -2.3 | -3.1 |
| Falcons | +0.9 | +0.3 | -0.2 | +4.0 |
| Giants | +3.2 | -0.4 | +3.1 | +3.9 |
| Jaguars | +3.2 | +0.1 | +3.7 | +0.8 |
| Jets | -1.8 | -1.9 | -0.9 | -1.6 |
| Lions | -1.3 | -3.1 | -2.1 | -2.7 |
| Packers | +2.2 | +0.5 | -1.1 | +0.8 |
| Panthers | -3.8 | -2.5 | -3.6 | -1.6 |
| Patriots | -2.2 | -0.5 | -3.9 | +0.7 |
| Raiders | +0.8 | +0.8 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Rams | -2.2 | -1.0 | -2.7 | -0.9 |
| Ravens | -2.4 | -2.7 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| Saints | +1.0 | -0.5 | +0.6 | +2.0 |
| Seahawks | +0.8 | +1.7 | +0.0 | -2.2 |
| Steelers | -0.7 | +1.5 | +0.6 | -1.3 |
| Texans | -0.8 | -0.5 | +5.0 | -2.9 |
| Titans | -0.1 | +0.7 | -1.1 | +0.9 |
| Vikings | +4.7 | -1.7 | +2.7 | +5.9 |
All 32 Teams, Whole Offense
| Team | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | vs DET | vs WAS | @ NYJ | +1.7 |
| Cardinals | vs NYJ | @ NO | vs LV | +1.7 |
| Saints | @ TB | vs ARI | @ ATL | +1.5 |
| Raiders | vs DEN | vs TEN | @ ARI | +1.4 |
| Falcons | @ WAS | vs TB | vs NO | +1.4 |
| Jets | @ ARI | vs NE | vs MIN | +1.1 |
| Steelers | vs BAL | vs CAR | @ TEN | +0.9 |
| Giants | vs CLE | @ DET | @ DAL | +0.7 |
| Buccaneers | vs NO | @ ATL | vs LA | +0.7 |
| Titans | vs IND | @ LV | vs PIT | +0.6 |
| Bears | @ BUF | vs GB | vs DET | +0.6 |
| Packers | vs MIA | @ CHI | vs HOU | +0.5 |
| Browns | @ NYG | @ BAL | vs IND | +0.4 |
| Colts | @ TEN | vs CIN | @ CLE | +0.4 |
| Chargers | vs SF | @ MIA | vs KC | +0.3 |
| Lions | @ MIN | vs NYG | @ CHI | +0.3 |
| Dolphins | @ GB | vs LAC | vs BUF | +0.3 |
| Broncos | @ LV | vs BUF | @ NE | +0.3 |
| Jaguars | @ HOU | @ DAL | vs WAS | +0.2 |
| Bills | vs CHI | @ DEN | @ MIA | +0.2 |
| Bengals | @ CAR | @ IND | vs BAL | +0.2 |
| Chiefs | vs NE | vs SF | @ LAC | +0.1 |
| Cowboys | @ LA | vs JAX | vs NYG | +0.1 |
| Rams | vs DAL | @ SEA | @ TB | -0.5 |
| Commanders | vs ATL | @ MIN | @ JAX | -0.5 |
| Ravens | @ PIT | vs CLE | @ CIN | -0.6 |
| Panthers | vs CIN | @ PIT | vs SEA | -0.9 |
| Seahawks | @ PHI | vs LA | @ CAR | -0.9 |
| Patriots | @ KC | @ NYJ | vs DEN | -1.1 |
| 49ers | @ LAC | @ KC | vs PHI | -1.3 |
| Texans | vs JAX | @ PHI | @ GB | -1.4 |
| Eagles | vs SEA | vs HOU | @ SF | -1.5 |
How Much This Should Matter
A little, and less than you might expect. The best playoff schedule is worth less than two points per game for the whole offense. That gets spread across everyone who touches the ball, so a single player gains a small slice of it. The position numbers run bigger, up to about six points per game for a whole position group, but they rest on six or seven games per defense. Who the player is matters much more than who he plays.
Use the schedule to break a tie. If two players are close in our rest-of-season ranks and you can only keep one, take the one with the easier playoff games. Don't give up a clearly better player to get an easier playoff schedule.
These numbers will move as teams get better or worse over the next seven weeks, and an injury can change a player's outlook more than his schedule can. Check the live rankings before you make an offer.